Big investments in the current crop of home consoles means that the next, next-generation of games machines will be some years off. That’s the story according to Wedbush Morgan analyst and gamesbiz oracle, Michael Pachter.

As regular readers will know, Pachter is not exactly shy of making important-sounding pronouncements about the size, state and future trajectory of the videogames industry. This latest one is surely true to his usual form too:

“We do not expect a ‘new’ console in 2010, other than the long-rumoured high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology,” he begins.

“We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all. We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.”

Well, that all seems plausible enough, doesn’t it? After all it’s still early days, relatively speaking, for the Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360, and developers are still discovering the full potential of each hardware platform. And it stands to reason that the platform owners would want to see a return on their investments before ploughing ahead with new technologies – particularly those who are still selling their consoles at a loss.

But is Pachter making his statement based on any insider knowledge or merely extrapolating using the lifecycles of previous hardware generations? We’d have to guess the latter – the PS2 launched in late 2000 and its next-generation successor arrived six years later, although PS2 sales were still strong at that point. Add six years to the lifespan of the PS3, allowing a few extra months to cover the increased research and development costs and – presto! – 2013, or thereabouts.

Ach, we’re not really trying to suggest that anyone could have made such predictions up (although they really could on this occasion!). In any case Pachter’s outlook is otherwise pretty sunny, telling his investors that “...investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years.”

In other words the best is yet to come. On that point we certainly have to agree with him. As for the HD Wii, well, that one's been wafting around the floor of the rumour-mill pretty much since the Wii launched, but let’s just wait and see what comes out of the E3...